Methodology
How we combine official data into the metrics you see for each occupation.
Overall risk
We average Immigration displacement risk and AI / Automation risk (each 0–100), then map the result to five levels: Very low risk (<20), Low (20–39), Moderate (40–59), High (60–79), Very high (80+). The thresholds are calibrated so that occupations with strong automation exposure (e.g. from the JSA Gen AI study) sit in the higher bands.
Immigration displacement risk
We use the share of workers in the occupation who were born overseas (ABS 2021 Census, TableBuilder). Higher shares are treated as higher displacement risk. Values are mapped to a 0–100 scale for consistency with other metrics.
AI / Automation risk
Sourced from the Jobs and Skills Australia Generative AI Capacity Study. We take the automation exposure score (or equivalent) at ANZSCO 4-digit level and scale it to 0–100. This reflects the likelihood that tasks in the occupation could be automated by AI or robotics.
Projected employment growth
Five-year percentage change in employment (e.g. May 2025 → May 2030) from JSA Employment Projections. We use 4-digit occupation where available, with 3-digit fallback when 4-digit is not published.
Entry difficulty
We combine (1) the share of job ads that are entry-level (JSA) and (2) ANZSCO skill level (qualification requirement). High entry-level share and lower qualification barrier yield “Easy”; few entry-level ads and degree-level requirement yield “Very hard.” The result is mapped to four levels: Easy, Moderate, Hard, Very hard.
Replacement demand, age profile, earnings
Replacement demand — 5-year job openings from JSA Employment Projections (baseline employment and growth). Age profile — Median age, share 55+, share under 30 from ABS Census TableBuilder. Earnings — Average weekly total cash earnings (AUD) from ABS Employee Earnings and Hours; we use 4-digit where available, otherwise 3-digit group average.